Why Arsenal fans should be the happiest fans
Posted by Gringo Maclure in Arsenal, Arsene Wenger, Chelsea, Man United, Newcastle, Premiership, West Brom | 6 November 2009
It's no secret that Arsenal have been scoring for fun. The Champions League 4-1 victory this week was the latest evidence that the Gunners are turning the Emirates into a fortress. But, taking league form as a barometer, which has included two occasions when Arsenal have netted six, are Arsenal's goal scoring exploits that unusual? Are other teams in all divisions able to equally score so freely and, more importantly, dominate teams by keeping their goal difference high as well?
To find answers to this question, I compiled a "Best of English Football" league. I don't know why British newspapers/statisticians don't employ this more often but the Brazilian press use the criteria "percentages of available points won" as a league ranking. This eliminates the problem of looking at a league table with "games in hand" to take into account. For example, let's say if Aston Villa had won their first two games at the start of the season they would have a percentage of 100% (6 points won / 6 points available) after two games and would finish above a team who had won two but drawn one which would have a percentage of 77% (7 points won / 9 points available). The advantage of this is that you can also compare teams across divisions or even countries even if they have played vastly different numbers of games. So, using this criteria let's compile an elite league of 12 made up of the top 3 from the top four English divisions. This is what it looks like.
Percentage of available points won.
1. Chelsea (Prem) 81%
2. Leeds United (CCL1) 80%
3. Man Utd (Prem) 76%
4. Arsenal (Prem) 73%
5. Bournemouth (CCL1) 68%
6. Newcastle (CCC) 67%
7. Charlton (CCL1) 64%
=7 MK Dons (CCL1) 64%
=7 Rochdale (CCL2) 64%
=7 Dag & Red (CCL2) 64%
11. West Brom (CCC) 60%
12. Cardiff (CCC) 60%
This league of leagues shows how the Premiership really is a league of extremes in which the top teams have to perform extraordinarily well maintain a title challenge. The top 3 Premier League teams appear in the top 4 overall form positions. Arsenal, despite being 3rd in the Premier League are producing results 6% better than Newcastle who are top of the Championship. Another factor in favour of the Premiership teams has been the lack of draws in the top half of the Premier League this season – more points are being won by more teams. Well done to Leeds United too, who are clearly dominating League 1 taking 80% of points available to them.
But, when it comes to goals scored per game, what does the league of leagues look like?
Average goals per game (gpg).
1. Arsenal 3.2
2. Chelsea 2.5
3. Man Utd 2.3
4. Cardiff 2.1
5. West Brom 1.9
=5 Leeds 1.9
=5 Rochdale 1.9
=5 Dag and Red 1.9
9. Charlton 1.6
10. Newcastle 1.5
11. Bournemouth 1.3
12. MK Dons 1.2
This league demonstrates, then, that Arsenal are scoring far more freely than anyone else in the top 4 English divisions, netting 0.7 more goals per game than Chelsea and everyone else. In fact, the best teams from Europe are not scoring 3 goals per game either: Barcelona 2.6 gpg, Inter 2.5 gpg. Even in the SPL where the old Firm usually dominate the rest of the league convincingly, Celtic top the gpg ratio at only 2.0. Again, the Premiership seems to be the division to watch in order to see goals. Much has been made this season of Cardiff's free-scoring in the Championship but they still average less gpg than Chelsea and Manchester United.
Strangely, Bournemouth and Newcastle can't muster more than two goals per game and yet they are leaders of their respective leagues. This shows, of course, that defence is equally important to success. Or, in other words, goal difference (goals scored – goals conceded) is obviously an even more important indication of whether a team are winning and winning well. Arsenal fans won't be happy if Arsenal concede as many as they score.
So, here is the goal difference league across the four divisions divided by the number of games played by each team. The number in the league then is the number of goals MORE that a team scores than their opponents on average per game.
1. Arsenal +1.9
2. Chelsea +1.8
3. Manchester United +1.7
4. Leeds United +1.4
5. West Brom +1.1
6. Cardiff + 1
7. Newcastle +0.9
=7 Rochdale +0.9
9. Charlton +0.7
=9 Dag and Red +0.7
11. Bournemouth +0.5
12. MK Dons +0.3
When Arsenal fans have gone to watch Arsenal this season they have been watching a team that averages more than 3 goals per game and who beats teams by almost a clear 2 goal margin. Or, the average Arsenal score this season has been a 3-1 win to the Gunners. No other team is able to dominate teams quite so thoroughly in all 4 divisions. Cardiff, who have done well to score so many goals, seem to concede a lot as they only manage to beat teams by one goal each time.
These statistics are clearly not the be all and end all in comparing teams across the divisions. Bournemouth are topping League 2 with a very low goals scored and goal difference. It seems apparent that the outcome of a league – especially at the business end of the season – will be down to many other competing factors including when and against whom goals are scored and conceded. What these statistics do show, however, is that Arsenal supporters should be a fairly happy lot right now. Nowhere in England or probably Europe is a team scoring so many goals in order to overturn teams so completely.
As a Gooner myself I say long may it continue!
Comments
good work this
I still watch Arsenal despite the recent scandals They are the most skillful football team in the world
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