When the big 4 play each other...
Posted by Gringo Maclure in Alex Ferguson, Arsenal, Arsene Wenger, Chelsea, Filipe Scolari, Liverpool, Man United, Premiership, Rafa Benitez | 6 November 2008
This weekend Arsenal face Manchester United. The general consensus is that if Arsenal want to maintain a title challenge they cannot afford to lose in a game of this magnitude. This is, after all, what folks like to call a “six-pointer”. And with Liverpool scoring unlikely victories against both Manchester United and Chelsea earlier this season, the national press, starting with Alan Hansen, are beginning to tout them as real title contenders.
But, how much do the games between the big 4 affect the outcome of the Premiership? Is a “six-pointer” really a six-pointer? Is it possible for Arsenal to do relatively badly against Chelsea, Manchester United and Liverpool but still retain a title challenge – or is the opposite the case – beating off your closest rivals is the essential first step to domination in the domestic league? This question has long puzzled me and I haven’t read too much by way of explanation for it.
So, I thought I’d turn Statto, and donning my slightly worn-out A-level Maths-with-Stats hat, I set about trying to work it out…
The Big 4 League
To do this, I looked at all the results between the big 4 stretching back to the 2002/03 season. This was just before the Abramovich effect lifted Chelsea into England’s elite and the big 4 was, to all intents and purposes, christened. In the season before this, the 2001/02 season Chelsea finished mid-table and you could make a case for Leeds being part of the Premier League’s elite (strange days indeed!). From the 2002/03 season until today the final Premiership League table has always included Arsenal, Chelsea, Liverpool and Manchester United in its top five. In only two exceptions was the top 4 breached by a team which was not a part of the big 4, in fact, by Newcastle (who finished third in 02/03) and Everton (who narrowly finished fourth ahead of their local rivals in 04/05).
Quite simply for each season from 2002/03 until 07/08 I pulled out the games between the big 4 and compiled a new league based on their results against each other in the Premier League. We can call it the Big 4 League. Like a Champions League group stage table, the big 4 play each other home and away in a total of 12 fixtures per season. If one of the big 4 were to win all their games home and away against the other members of the big 4 they would bag 18 points and top the Big 4 league. Make sense?
After this, I took the Big 4 League I made for each season and had a look to see how it compared with the final Premier League standings for each season. If results between the big 4 were significant, so the theory goes, the order Arsenal, Chelsea, Liverpool and Manchester United appear in the Big 4 league should closely resemble the final standings in the Premier League for that season. If not, there shouldn’t be a clear correlation.
When the big 4 play each other
In exactly 50% of cases (12/24), Arsenal, Chelsea, Liverpool and Manchester United finish in the Big 4 League in exactly the same order as they do in the Premiership. Interestingly, in 5 of the last 6 seasons, the Premiership winner is the same as the Big 4 League winner. For example, in their Untouchables season of 03/04 Arsenal managed home and away wins against both Liverpool and Chelsea, tallying 14 points in total against their closest rivals. Not surprisingly, they won. Chelsea topped that in 05/06, taking 15 points off other members of the big 4, winning the league in the process. Past form suggests, therefore, that if Liverpool continue their promising start and stay on top of Chelsea, Arsenal and Manchester United over the course of the season they should have a very strong chance of taking the title.
In almost all cases (23/24) teams finished in the same positions in both the Big 4 League and the Premiership, or were removed by only one place. The sole exception came in the 06/07 season. Somehow, and this seems to be an anomaly and a frustrating one at that for fans of the Gunners, Arsene Wenger’s men managed to win the Big 4 League with 11 points beating Manchester United home and away in the process but finished fourth in the Premiership. The lesson from that situation must surely be that once you’ve done the hard work of clocking points over your closest rivals you need to make sure you pick up the wins on the road against weaker teams – a factor lacking in Arsenal’s form from that season.
Interestingly, Liverpool's league form against other members of the Big 4 is absolutely atrocious. They've repeatedly finished bottom of the Big 4 league and so have unsurprisingly never breached the top 2 by the climax of an EPL season. By bagging 6 points by November, Rafa Benitez's men have already equalled their season-best performances of the past six years against Man U, AFC and Chelsea. Again, good omens for the Anfield faithful that perhaps this is their year.
I’ve copied all the big 4 leagues below so you can draw your own conclusions too.
Conclusion
So, do games between the big 4 constitute “six-pointers”? Clearly, what I’ve discussed here is just one small idea with a very small sample size, but, yes, how the big 4 do against each other seems to reflect significantly in the outcome of the Premier League based on the form of the last six seasons. With this in mind, Arsenal had better begin taking the points off their rivals. A home win against Man United at the Emirates would be a good place to start.
The Big 4 Leagues from the 02/03 season to the 07/08 season
07/08 Pts W L D GD Order the Big 4 finished in the EPL
Manu 13 4 1 1 +6 1
Chels 08 2 2 2 -1 2
Arsnl 06 1 3 2 -1 3
Lpool 04 0 4 2 -4 4
06/07
Arsnl 11 3 2 1 +2 4
Manu 08 2 2 2 +1 1
Chels 07 1 4 1 -1 2
Lpool 06 2 0 4 -2 3
05/06
Chels 15 5 0 1 +10 1
Manu 08 2 2 2 +1 2
Arsnl 04 1 1 4 -5 4
Lpool 04 1 1 4 -6 3
04/05
Chels 14 4 2 0 +5 1
Manu 12 4 0 2 +3 3
Arsnl 05 1 2 3 -3 2
Lpool 03 1 0 5 -5 4
03/04
Arsnl 14 4 2 0 +5 1
Chels 07 2 1 3 -1 2
Manu 06 1 3 2 -1 3
Lpool 06 2 0 4 -3 4
02/03
Manu 14 4 2 0 +8 1
Arsnl 07 1 4 1 -1 2
Chels 06 1 3 2 -2 3
Lpool 05 1 2 3 -5 4
Comments
Fantastic article. keep up the good work
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