Update on 4th spot and relegation
Posted by DavidM in Football blogs | 2 April 2006
The first weekend after my predictions of who would clinch 4th spot in the Premiership and who would avoid relegation threw up a few surprises that impact the likely outcomes.
Starting with 4th place, the games went as follows:
- Spurs predicted to win against Newcastle, lost, so are 3 points down
- Blackburn drew against Wigan as I suggested
- Arsenal beat Aston Villa as predicted
- I thought Bolton would get a draw against Man Utd but they lost so they are 1 point down
So assuming all the remaining games go as expected, the table will look like this:
- Arsenal - 69 points
- Spurs - 64 points
- Blackburn - 63 points
- Bolton - 62 points
Arsenal will have a more comfortable margin and Bolton slip to bottom of the pile.
At the other end of the table Portsmouth and Birmingham did better than expected. The results were:
- West Brom went as planned and lost to liverpool
- Portsmouth played well and beat Fulham, against a predicted draw, so are 2 points better off
- Birmingham held on for a great draw agains Chelsea, versus an expected loss. It only increases their expected final tally by 1 point but could have a much bigger effect on their confidence for the final games.
The bottom of the table is now expected to look as follows at the end of the season:
- Portsmouth - 33 points
- West Brom - 31 points
- Birmingham - 28 points
Portsmouth leapfrog West Brom and while Birmingham close the gap with West Brom, they are further away from safety.
A big game tomorrow night (Tuesday 4th) with Bolton playing Birmingham.
Cheers
David